MOGUĆI STRATEŠKI ODGOVORI ZAPADA NA USPON KINE AKO SE NJEN SNAŽAN EKONOMSKI RAST NASTAVI
Ključne reči:
Кина, економска моћ, раст, БДП, Запад, отвореностApstrakt
Током 2018–2019. eкономски раст наставио је да слаби у Кини. ММФ предвиђа постепено успоравање раста у наредним годинама са израженим успоравањем индустрије. И поред тога, у складу са истим пројекцијама, средњорочни економски изгледи Кине, указују да се БДП Кине приближава оном у САД, те да ће година сустизања, ако не дође не неког изненадног погоршања економских фундамената Кине, бити 2029.
Пре више од два века, Европа а потом САД су стекле економску надмоћ, a сада када се успоставља нова равнотежа, западни свет се нужно мора прилагодити кинеском економском успону. Тзв. западне демократије би требало да одржавају отворену политику ангажмана са Кином. Овде је од посебног значаја је да Кина више није претежно рурална и сиромашна земља, већ урбана (док је 1979. само 18% популације живело у градовима данас је тај удео 60% и даље рате). Истина, боље образована, напреднија и социјално добро повезана друштва не производе аутоматски либералније и неконфликтне државе, али се чини да ће Кина с протоком времена скоро извесно постати мање ауторитарна и отворенија земља.
Према западним ауторима, Запад, посебно САД, могли би да више улажу у научна истраживања истовремено „држећи под контролом” одређене кинеске компаније, како би одржале технолошку супериорност без забране кинеских инвестиција и имиграције. Само осигуравањем отвореније и равноправније размене САД могу да се надају да ће се кинеске тзв. ‘covert sharp-power’ операције претворити у аутентичну меку моћ.
Кина ће у догледној будућности остати главни ривал Америке у погледу глобалне моћи и утицаја те је стога за две земље политика конструктивног ангажмана приоритет. С обзиром на забринутост Пекинга, посебно након увођења америчких царина на кинеску робу, да је ера хипер-глобализације која је омогућила успон најмогољудније земље можда окончана, шансе за успех таквог конструктивног ангажмана расту.
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