THE NEW INTERNATIONAL MULTILATERAL ORDER ON THE HORIZON: THE INTENSIFYING BATTLE FOR SUPREMACY (ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL ASPECT)

Abstract

Realist international relations scholars like Mearsheimer or Kagan affirm the USA and China are drifting closer to a destructive confrontation because the ability and willingness of China to reshape the international order are increasing, just as the US’ capacity to preserve the status quo is declining. Of course, economic interdependence reduces the chance of confrontation, but even if there is no hard conflict, China and the US appear to be headed towards a Cold War-type detente in which other countries are forced to take sides. Additional global problem is fact that cooperation between the US and Russia on nuclear issues is strongly decreased and threat of nuclear war between our two nations is now the highest it’s been since 1953. The problem with this interruption in communications is that it greatly increases the risk that a minor military incident could rapidly escalate into a total war. Russia’s conventional weakness regarding the US, and its accompanying „escalate to de-escalate” nuclear doctrine, increases the chance of such a catastrophe.

From the American point of view, for the successful US policy toward China (and Asia) the new US administration must first to combat the growing global perception that the US is receding in leadership while China is on the rise. In addition, it is necessary to reassure Southeast Asia about U.S. staying power, to continue to ensure freedom of navigation in the South China Sea, and to make it clear that human rights remain a central tenet of American foreign policy. For now, China is aware that its process of modernization is still recent and needs more growth to assume the role and responsibilities of a regional or even a global leader.