EXPECTED STRUCTURAL CHANGES ОF SERBIAN EXPORTS DURING THE EU ACCES-SION PROCESS
Keywords:
merchandise exports, Serbia, growth, 2000-2014, EU, structure, quality.Abstract
Analysis based on similarity coefficients and classification of exports by factor intensity and applied technology indicate that, after a strong qualitative deterioration that occurred during the 90s, until 2006 we practically not observed important qualitative changes in domestic export structure. After 2006 it can be detect mild qualitative improvements, especially intense in 2012 and 2013th. Significant export growth since 2000 (15.6 % on average per year) resulted from a very low base, preferential treatment in the EU market, the effectuation of free trade zone in the region, the initial impact of the restructuring of the domestic economy, as well as effect of improving import (through growth of import equipment).Most of the countries that joined the EU in 2004-07, had an export-led growth by auto and electronics industries, which indicates what should be the priority of domestic industrial policy. The conclusion is that we need to attract (apart Fiat) and other companies in the automotive industry and electronics sector. Without the export orientation and the growth of investment there is a risk that Serbia enters into economic stagnation. In the medium term, given the mild import and export advances, the experience of advanced countries in transition, and the expected continuation of foreign capital inflows, we can expect further structural improvement of exports and maintaining its moderate growth.
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