EXPECTED STRUCTURAL CHANGES ОF SERBIAN EXPORTS DURING THE EU ACCES-SION PROCESS
Keywords:
merchandise exports, Serbia, growth, 2000-2014, EU, structure, quality.Abstract
Analysis based on similarity coefficients and classification of exports by factor intensity and applied technology indicate that, after a strong qualitative deterioration that occurred during the 90s, until 2006 we practically not observed important qualitative changes in domestic export structure. After 2006 it can be detect mild qualitative improvements, especially intense in 2012 and 2013th. Significant export growth since 2000 (15.6 % on average per year) resulted from a very low base, preferential treatment in the EU market, the effectuation of free trade zone in the region, the initial impact of the restructuring of the domestic economy, as well as effect of improving import (through growth of import equipment).Most of the countries that joined the EU in 2004-07, had an export-led growth by auto and electronics industries, which indicates what should be the priority of domestic industrial policy. The conclusion is that we need to attract (apart Fiat) and other companies in the automotive industry and electronics sector. Without the export orientation and the growth of investment there is a risk that Serbia enters into economic stagnation. In the medium term, given the mild import and export advances, the experience of advanced countries in transition, and the expected continuation of foreign capital inflows, we can expect further structural improvement of exports and maintaining its moderate growth.
Downloads
References
Damijan Jože, Rojec Matija, Ferjancic Maja (2006): “Growing export performance of transition economies: EU market access versus supply capacity factors”, LICOS Discussion Papers, LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance, K.U.Leuven
Zdravković, Miroslav (2014a): “Robna razmena Srbije sa Evropom i van nje 2006-2013”, http://www.makroekonomija.org/0-miroslav-zdravkovic/robnarazmena-srbije-sa-evropom-i-van-nje-2006-2013/
Zdravković, Miroslav (2014b), “Srbija je do poplava imala najbrži rast robnog izvoza u svetu”,
www.makroekonomija.org/0-miroslav-zdravkovic/srbija-do-poplava-imalanajbrzi-rast-robnog-izvoza-u-svetu/
Jovetić Slavica, Stanišić, Nenad (2009): „Konvergencija izvoznih struktura evropskih tranzicionih zemalja i zemalja EU15 sa posebnim osvrtom na Srbiju”, Industrija, Br. 3, str. 1-19
Kalcheva, Katerina (2006): “Institutional Arrangements for Credible Monetary Policy in Transition Countries”, in: Motamen-Samadian, Sima (ed.) Economic Transition in Central and Eastern Europe, Palgrave-Macmillan, Basingstoke
Kovačević, Radovan (2009): “The Structural Characteristics of World Trade and the Merchandise Export of Serbia”, Economic Annals, No.181, April-June. pp. 55-91
Kőzponti Statisztikai Hivatal (2014): „External trade turnover by groups of countries in EUR (2012–)”, Budapest, http://www.ksh.hu/docs/eng/xstadat/xstadat_annual/i_qkt017.html
Ministarstvo finansija Republike Srbije (2014): „Petnaest najvećih izvoznika, januar-jun“, Beograd, www.mfin.gov.rs/UserFiles/File/Najveci%20srpski%20izvoznici/15%20IZVOZNIKA%20-JANUAR-%20MART.pdf
Nikolić, Goran (2004): ”Strukturno prilagođavanje robnog izvoza Srbije uvoznoj tražnji Evropske unije”, Ekonomski anali, Br.162, str. 191-207
Nikolić, Goran (2013): ”Is there a structural improvement in merchandise exports of Balkan countries in the period 2000-2012?“ Economic Annals, Vol. LVIII, No. 196/January–March, pp. 99-132
Nikolić, Goran (2014): ”Structural Improvement of the Serbian Merchandise Exports 2000-2013: Comparative Analysis”, The Review of International Affairs, No. 2, pp. 66-83
Republički zavod za statistiku (2014a): Saopštenje, God. LXIV, broj 119, Beograd, http://webrzs.stat.gov.rs/WebSite/repository/documents/00/01/37/87/st16042014.pdf
Republički zavod za statistiku (2014b): Spoljnotrgovinska robna razmena Republike Srbije, mart, Beograd, http://webrzs.stat.gov.rs/WebSite/public/PublicationView.aspx?pKey=41&pLevel=1&pubType=2&pubKey=2335
Sapienza, Elvira (2009): “The interaction between Export and FDI: CentralEastern Europe and EU15”, Quaderni DSEMS, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche, Matematiche e Statistiche, Universita' di Foggia.
Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic (2014): Export database, Bratislava, http://slovak.statistics.sk/wps/portal/ext/products/informationmes sages/inf_sprava_detail/8267a55d-2d86
Stanišić, Nenad (2008): “Do Foreign Direct Investments Increase the Economic Growth of Southeastern European Transition Economies?”, MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany
Ferrazzi, M., Revoltella, D. (2008): „Trade and FDI: The point of view of Central Eastern European countries“, u: Curzio, Alberto Quadrio, Fortis, Marco (eds) The EU and Economies of Eastern European Enlargement, PhysicaVerlag, Berlin – Heidelberg
Finger, Joseph Michael, Krenin, Mordechai (1979): “Measure of Export Similarity and Possible Uses”, Economic Journal, Vol. 89, December, pp. 905-912
Czech Statistical Office (2014): External trade database, June, Prague, http://apl.czso.cz/pll/stazo/STAZO.STAZO?jazyk=EN
Crespo Nuno, Fontoura Maria Paula (2005): “Integration of CEECs into EU Markets: Structural Change and Convergence”, Atlantic Economic Conference, Lisbon