Jačanje globalnog značaja kineske ekonomije u postpandemijskom periodu
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.51738/Kpolisa2022.19.3r.44nzlKljučne reči:
pandemija, ekonomski rast, BDP, Kina, SAD, konkurencijaApstrakt
Uprkos pandemiji koja je bacila na kolena veći deo globalne ekonomije, rast kineske privrede se nastavio u 2020. i snažno ubrzao u 2021. Skoro izvestan scenario u kome Kina prestiže SAD kao najveću svetsku ekonomiju u ovoj deceniji već donosi snažne geopolitičke implikacije. Ključni razlog snažnog rasta kineske privrede je visok udeo štednje i investicije u BDP (po preko dve petine) u veoma dugom periodu, zajedno sa impresivnim tehnološkim progresom koji ja ta zemlja napravila. S tim u vezi, direktan razlog trenutne napetosti između dve države je kineska ekonomska transformaciju ka gornjem kraju globalnih industrijskih lanaca vrednosti. Pokušaji da se forsiranim tehnološkim razdvajanjem, američkim trgovinskim sankcijama ili forsiranim promenama globalnih lanaca snabdevanja okonča ekonomska ekspanzija Kine, imajući u vidu njeno ogromno unutrašnje tržište i osvajanje celih paleta proizvoda, odnosno lanaca snadbevanja, deluju osuđene na neuspeh. Iako SAD i Kina nisu nužno na putu konfrontacije, to se svakako ne može isključiti. Cilj ovog rada je projekcija buduće dinamike BDP-ova dve vodeće svetske ekonomije; američke i kineske. Primenjena metodologija se bazira na linearnoj projekciji rasta BDP-a obe države u periodu nakon 2026. (koji se nastavlja na oficijelne procene MMF-a zaključno sa 2026).
##plugins.generic.usageStats.downloads##
Reference
Arduino, A. (2020, September 7). Cryptocurrency: the next battleground in the US–China rivalry. South China Morning Post. https://www.scmp.com/weekasia/opinion/article/3100330/cryptocurrency-next-battleground-uschina-rivalry
BBC. (2020, December 26). Chinese economy to overtake US 'by 2028' due to Covid. BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-55454146
Bjelajac, Ž., & Filipović, A. (2020). COVID-19 pandemic – Security challenges, risks and threats. Kultura polisa, 17(2), 9–23. https://kpolisa.com/index.php/kp/article/view/262
Hancock, T., & Curran, E. (2021, January 14). China Set to Topple U.S. as Biggest Economy Sooner After Virus. Bloomberg. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-14/a-year-aftercovid-began-china-s-economy-is-beating-the-world
Centre for Economics and Business Research [CEBR]. (2021). World Economic League Table 2021 (12th ed.). https://cebr.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/WELT-2021-final-15.01.pdf
Centre for Economics and Business Research Ltd. (CEBR). (2020). World Economic League Table 2020 (11th ed.). https://cebr.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/WELT-2021-final-23.12.pdf
Consumer News and Business Channel (CNBC). (2021, January 7). Yuan may appreciate 4-5% against the U.S. dollar in 2021: Analyst [Video]. CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/01/07/yuan-may-appreciate-4-5percent-against-the-us-dollar-in-2021-analyst.html
Blumenthal, D. (2020). The China Nightmare: The Grand Ambitions of a Decaying State. American Enterprise Institute.
Cooley, A., & Nexon, D. H. (2020, July/August). How Hegemony Ends. The Unraveling of American Power. Foreign Affairs. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-06-09/how-hegemony-ends
Dollar, D. (2020). The future of global supply chains: What are the implications for interna-tional trade? Reimagining the global economy: Building back better in a post-COVID-19 world. Brookings Institution.
Duo, D. (2020, December 8). On South China Sea, expect more of the same from US Presi-dent Joe Biden. South China Morning Post. https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3112866/southchina-sea-expect-more-same-us-president-joe-biden
Elhedery G. (2022, 14 February). As cryptocurrency risks spread, central bank digital cur-rencies are set for their moment in the sun. South China Morning Post. https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3166750/cryptocurrency-risks-spread-central-bank-digital-currencies-are-set
Evans, G. (2020, December 14). Australia’s China Problem. Project Syndicate. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/the-china-strategyaustralia-needs-by-gareth-evans-2020-12
Farrell, H. & Newman, A. (2020, June 3). The Folly of Decoupling From China. Foreign Af-fairs. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2020-06-03/follydecoupling-china
Filipović, A., & Bjelajac, Ž. (2020). The role of mass media in disaffirmation of security cul-ture during the Covid-19 pandemic. Kultura polisa, 17(2), 137–150. https://kpolisa.com/index.php/kp/article/view/271
Hsien-Loong, L. (2020, July/August 2020). The Endangered Asian Century (America, China, and the Perils of Confrontation). Foreign Affairs. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/asia/2020-06-04/lee-hsienloong-endangered-asian-century
Huang, C. (2019, April 21). If China thinks it’s overtaking the US any time soon, here’s a wake-up call. South China Morning Post. https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3006892/if-chinathinks-its-overtaking-us-any-time-soon-heres-wake-call
Global Times staff reporters (2022, February 28). Shares of cross-border payment system, digital currency rise in A-share trade. Global Times. https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202202/1253494.shtml
Günther, M. (2020). A deal for the Asian century. International Politics and Society.
Iggo C. (2021, June 30). Where bitcoin fails, central bank digital currencies will succeed. South China Morning Post. https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3139165/wherebitcoin-fails-central-bank-digital-currencies-will-succeed
International Monetary Fund (2019). World Economic Outlook Database – October 2019. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2019/October
International Monetary Fund (2020). World Economic Outlook Database – October 2020. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2020/October
International Monetary Fund (2021). World Economic Outlook Database – October 2021. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2021/October
International Monetary Fund (2022). World Economic Outlook UpDate, January 2022. Rising Caseloads, A Disrupted Recovery, and Higher Inflation. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2022/01/25/worldeconomic-outlook-update-january-2022
Jun, Z (2020, September 7). China’s Rapid Shift to a Digital Economy. Project Sindicate. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-digitaleconomy-transformation-pandemic-by-zhang-jun-2020
Jun, Z. (2020, Jun 24). Explaining China’s Economic Resilience. Project Sindicate. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-unstoppableeconomy-domestic-investment-consumption-by-zhang-jun-2020-06
Kang, X. & Chen, D. (2020, November 10). Why China’s Economy Keeps Booming Even After COVID-19. The Diplomat. https://thediplomat.com/2020/11/why-chinas-economy-keeps booming-even-after-covid-19/
Kroenig, M. & Jeffrey Cimmino, J. (2020, December 7). China Is Both Weak and Dangerous. Foreign Policy. https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/12/07/china-weak-dangerous-chinanightmare-dan-blumenthal-review/
Le Miere, C. (2020, June 3). China’s relations with the US are at their lowest for 30 years, but don’t call it a new cold war. South China Morning Post. https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3087015/chinasrelations-us-are-their-lowest-30-years-dont-call-it-new-cold
Lockett, H. & Hale, T. (2020, December 14). Global investors place Rmb1tn bet on China breakthrough. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/d9ac222d-90d8-4570-b89e-a99f1bd4829b
McKinsey & Company (2020). China consumer report 2021 (Special edition) - Understand-ing Chinese Consumers: Growth Engine of the World. https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/featured%20insights/china/china%20still%20the%20worlds%20growth%20engine%20after%20covid%2019/mckinsey%20china%20consumer%20report%202021.pdf
Nathan, A. J. (2020, September 25). The Heart of the New Cold War. Project Sindicate. https://www.project-syndicate.org/onpoint/human-rightsat-the-center-us-china-cold-war-by-andrew-j-nathan-2020
Nikolić, G. (2020). Rastuća globalna uloga G20 i BRIK i njihov trgovinski značaj za Srbiju. Tržište, novac, kapital, 43(2), 86–98.
Nikolić, G., & Malović M. (2020). Mogući strateški odgovori zapada na uspon Kine ako se njen snažan ekonomski rast nastavi. Kultura polisa, 41(1), 471–491.
Guillemette, Y. & Turner D. (2018). The Long View: Scenarios for the World Economy to 2060. OECD Economic Policy Papers 22. https://doi.org/10.1787/b4f4e03e-en.
Pei, M. (2020, November 20). A Roadmap for Stabilizing Sino-American Relations. Project Sindicate. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/biden-xi-roadmap- for-stabilizing-america-china-relations-by-minxin-pei-2020-11
PriceWaterhouse Coopers - PwC (2017). The World in 2050: The Long View, How will the global economic order change by 2050? https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/world-2050/assets/pwc-world-in-2050-summary-report-feb-2017.pdf
Qiu, S., Singh, S. & Khasawneh, R. (2020, December 10). Boxed out: China's exports pinched by global run on shipping containers. Reuters. https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-global-shipping-container/boxedout-chinas-exports-pinched-by-global-run-on-shipping-containersidUSKBN28K0UA
Xie, A. (2020, September 11). The real economic reforms China needs to become less de-pendent on exports. South China Morning Post. https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3100870/realeconomic-reforms-china-needs-become-less-dependent-exports
Rennie, D. (2020, December). China: Still a contender (The World in 2021). The Economist. https://www.economist.com/the-world-in-2021
Rowley, A. (2022, February 28). Bit by bit, central bank digital currencies like China’s will eat into US dollar hegemony. South China Morning Post. https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3168576/bit-bitcentral-bank-digital-currencies-chinas-will-eat-usdollar?module=opinion&pgtype=homepage
Schell, O. (2020, April 3). The Ugly End of Chimerica. Foreign Policy. https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/03/chimerica-ugly-endcoronavirus-china-us-trade-relations/
Solana, J. & Fernandez, O. (2020, June 18). Averting a Cold War of Choice. Project Sindicate. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/america-china-avertingcold-war-of-choice-by-javier-solana-and-oscar-fernandez-2020-06
Tang, F. & Wang O. (2022, January 18). China GDP growth beats expectations, narrows gap with US, but population crisis, Covid-19 cloud outlook. South China Morning Post. https://www.scmp.com/economy/chinaeconomy/article/3163720/china-gdp-growth-2021-beats-expectations- narrowing-gap-us
Vicenzino, M. (2020, June 13). US China rivalry will shape post coronavirus world order while India and the EU struggle to keep pace. South China Morning Post. https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3088626/us-chinarivalry-will-shape-post-coronavirus-world-order-while
Wilhelm, B. & Lavender, A. (2020, October 21). Having Contained COVID-19, China Sees Economic Growth – and Opportunity. The World Politics Review. https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/trend-lines/29154/for-chinapandemic-containment-leads-to-economic-growth-and-opportunity
Yongding, Y. (2020, December 3). China Can Spend More to Grow More. Project Sindicate. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-2020-growthrecovery-fiscal-expansion-by-yu-yongding-2020-12
Zhou, C. (2020, November 27). Donald Trump’s mooted China sanctions to throw spanner in the works of C919 passenger jet plans, sources say. South China Morning Post. https://www.scmp.com/economy/chinaeconomy/article/3111666/donald-trumps-mooted-china-sanctionsthrow-spanner-works-c919
##submission.downloads##
Objavljeno
Kako citirati
Broj časopisa
Sekcija
##category.category##
Licenca
Sva prava zadržana (c) 2022 Goran Nikolić, Jelena Zvezdanović Lobanova
Ovaj rad je pod Creative Commons Autorstvo 4.0 Internacionalna licenca.
