POSSIBLE STRATEGIC RESPONSES OF THE WEST TO CHINA’S RISE IF ITS STRONG ECONOMIC GROWTH CONTINUES

Authors

  • Goran Nikolić Institute for European Studies Belgrade
  • Marko Malović Educons Sremska, Kamenica

Keywords:

China, economic power, rise, GDP, the West, openness

Abstract

During 2018-2019 economic growth has weakened in China. According to IMF, growth is projected to continue to slow gradually in the coming years, with a notable slowdown in industrial output. Nevertheless, in line with the same projections, China's medium-term economic outlook indicates that China's GDP is approaching the one of the US, and that the year of catching up, without some sudden deterioration of China's economic fundamentals, will be 2029.

Over two centuries, the US and Europe acquired economic supremacy, and now with rebalancing set in, the Western world has to adapt to China’s economic rise. So called democracies should maintain an open policy of engagement with China. What is especially important is that China is no longer a predominately rural and impoverished country; in 1979, only 18% of the Chinese population lived in urban areas; today, that figure is about 60% and rising. Better-educated, more prosperous and well-connected societies do not automatically produce more liberal, peaceful societies, but China, with the passage of time, will almost certainly become a less authoritarian state.

According to western authors, the West, especially the US could invest more in scientific research and investigations into specific Chinese companies and investors, so that it can maintain technological superiority without banning Chinese investment and immigration. Only by ensuring more open and equal exchanges can the US hope to transform China’s socalled covert sharp-power operations into authentic soft-power ones.

China will remain America’s main rival for global power and influence for the foreseeable future. The two countries should pursue a policy of constructive engagement including mutually beneficial cooperation. With Chinese leaders fearing, particularlly after the US tariffs, that the age of hyper-globalization that alowed astonishing economic growth of the country is finished the probabilities for favorable outcome of potential constructive engagement are growing.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Beckley, Michael 2019. The United States Should Fear a Faltering China. Foreign Affairs, October 28, 2019 https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2019-10-28/unitedstates-should-fear-faltering-china

Chellaney, Brahma (2019). America’s Feeble Indo-Pacific Strategy. Project Syndicate, Nov 12, 2019. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/trump-too-weak-toensure-free-and-open-indo-pacific-region-by-brahma-chellaney-2019-11?a_la=english&a_d=5dcac50c44cb701da87c7da0&a_m=&a_a=click&a_s=&a_p=%2Farchive&a_li=trump-too-weak-to-ensure-free-and-open-indo-pacific-region-by-brahmachellaney-2019-11&a_pa=&a_ps=

Dalio, Ray, 2018. Chinese-American Misunderstandings, Disputes, and Wars, Bridgewater Associates, LP, JUNE 18, https://www.bridgewater.com/resources/ChineseAmerican_Misunderstandings_Disputes_and_Wars.pdf

Diamond, Larry, and Schell, Orville, 2019. China's Influence and American Interests. Hoover, August 1, 2019. https://www.hoover.org/research/chinas-influence-andamerican-interests

Diamond, Larry, and Schell, Orville, 2019b. Combating China’s Influence Operations,

Project Syndicate, Nov 4, 2019. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/chinainfluence-operations-us-institutions-academia-by-orville-schell-and-larry-diamond-2019-11?a_la=english&a_d=5dc036defdd4c71f78541c40&a_m=&a_a=click&a_s=&a_p=%2Farchive&a_li=china-influence-operations-us-institutions-academia-by-orville-schell-andlarry-diamond-2019-11&a_pa=&a_ps=

Doss Alan, 2019. How can liberal democracies best manage China’s re-emergence as a great power? South China Morning Post, 4 Nov, 2019 https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3035434/how-can-liberal-democraciesbest-manage-chinas-re-emergence-great

Economy Elizabeth, 2017. Beijing Is No Champion of Globalization. The Myth of Chinese Leadership. Foreign Affairs, January 22, 2017. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2017-01-22/beijing-no-championglobalization

Edel Charles & Brands Hal, 2019. The real origins of the US-China Cold War. Foreign Policy, JUNE 2, 2019. https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/06/02/the-real-origins-of-the-u-schina-cold-war-big-think-communism/

Gopinath, Gita 2019. The World Economy: Synchronized Slowdown, Precarious Outlook. IMF Blog OCTOBER 15, 2019. https://blogs.imf.org/2019/10/15/the-worldeconomy-synchronized-slowdown-precarious-outlook/

Gould-Davies, Nigel 2019. The Temptations of Triangulism. The National Interest, November 4, 2019 https://nationalinterest.org/feature/temptations-triangulism-93676

Huang, Cary, 2019. Hit hard by the trade war, China’s economic outlook is uncertain – except for one thing: growth is sure to decline, South China Morning Post, 4 Dec, 2019. https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3040309/hit-hard-trade-war-chinaseconomic-outlook-uncertain-except-one

IMF, 2019. online database.

Laidi, Zaki, 2019. The Hardening of Soft Power. Project Syndicate, Nov 4, 2019. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/hardening-of-soft-power-by-zaki-laidi-2019-11?a_la=english&a_d=5dc02cdefdd4c71f7849cb2a&a_m=&a_a=click&a_s=&a_p=%2Farchive&a_li=hardening-of-soft-power-by-zaki-laidi-2019-11&a_pa=&a_ps=

Magnier, Mark , 2019. Buyer beware – Chinese military weapons are low quality, says US State Department official

South China Morning Post, 1 Nov, 2019 https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3035825/buyer-beware-chinese-militaryweapons-are-low-quality-says-us-state

Mok, Winston 2019. China’s economic miracle has a secret ingredient hiding in plain sight: unbalanced growth. South China Morning Post, 9 Oct, 2019 https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3031886/chinas-economic-miracle-hassecret-ingredient-hiding-plain-sight

Paal, Douglas, 2019. The US and China take their rivalry into more dangerous waters after collapse of trade talks. South China Morning Post, 30 May, 2019. https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/3012133/us-and-china-taketheir-rivalry-more-dangerous-waters-after

Pettis, Michael, 2019. Why Trade Wars Are Inevitable. FOREIGN POLICY, OCTOBER 19, 2019. https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/10/19/trade-wars-inevitable-us-chinaeconomic-imbalances/

Ping, Ho Kwon 2019. Washington’s ‘Yellow Peril’ is pushing the US into a cold war with China, South China Morning Post, 21 Sep, 2019 https://www.scmp.com/weekasia/opinion/article/3029808/washingtons-yellow-peril-pushing-us-cold-war-china

Roach, S. Stephen. 2019. No Art to the US-China Trade Deal. Project-syndicate, Oct 25, 2019 https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/america-china-phase-one-tradeaccord-fatally-misconceived-by-stephen-s-roach-2019-10?a_la=english&a_d=5db2e3bdaccfe418ec9fabf3&a_m=&a_a=click&a_s=&a_p=%2Fsection%2Feconomics&a_li=america-china-phase-one-trade-accord-fatally-misconceivedby-stephen-s-roach-2019-10&a_pa=section-commentaries&a_ps=

Rodrik, Dani 2019. How to Get Past the US-China Trade War, Project-syndicate, Nov 7, 2019. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/framework-for-resolving-us-chinatrade-war-by-dani-rodrik-2019_la=english&a_d=5dc413d7ef01e01280a2c73b&a_m=&a_a=click&a_s=&a_p=%2Farchive&a_li=framework-for-resolving-us-china-trade-warby-dani-rodrik-2019-11&a_pa=&a_ps=

Sachs, Jeffrey 2019. America’s War on Chinese Technology, Project-syndicate, Nov 7, 2019. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/cheney-doctrine-us-war-onchinese-technology-byjeffreysachs?a_la=english&a_d=5dc424f9ef01e01280b580d5&a_m=&a_a=click&a_s=&a_p=%2Fsection%2Feconomics&a_li=cheney-doctrine-us-war-on-chinese-technologyby-jeffrey-d-sachs&a_pa=section-commentaries&a_ps=

Sheng, Andrew and Geng, Xiao, 2019. China Adjusts to the New World Order. Projectsyndicate, Oct 28, 2019 https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-can-resisttrump-external-pressure-by-andrew-sheng-and-xiao-geng-2019-10. https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3035434/how-can-liberal-democraciesbest-manage-chinas-re-emergence-great

Tang, Frank 2019. China revises up 2018 GDP after new census, making it easier to double size of economy in 2020. South China Morning Post, 22 Nov, 2019. https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3038877/china-revises-2018-gdp-after-new-census-making-it-easier

Wang, О. & Behsudi, А. 2019, China s new industrial policy dismissed as ‘Made in China 2025’ rehash by critics in Washington. South China Morning Post, 20 Nov, 2019. https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3038590/chinas-new-industrialpolicy-dismissed-made-china-2025-rehash

Wang, Orange 2019. Chinese economists warn Beijing to prepare for decoupling from US. South China Morning Post, 7 Jul, 2019. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3017550/chinese-economists-warn-beijingprepare-decoupling-us

Weinstein Kenneth, 2019. A New Cold War between the U.S. and China. Hudson Institute. https://www.hudson.org/research/14900-a-new-cold-war-between-the-u-s-and-china

WEO - World Economic Outlook, IMF, 2019. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2019/10/01/world-economic-outlookoctober-2019

Xu Klein, Jodi 2019. Henry Kissinger warns of ‘catastrophic’ conflicts unless China and US settle their differences., 15 Nov, 2019 https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3037870/kissinger-warns-us-andchina-their-conflicts-will-be

Yongding, Yu 2019. China Needs Economic Stimulus. South China Morning Post, Nov 5, 2019. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-growth-slowdownstimulus-by-yu-yongding-2019-11?a_la=english&a_d=5dc18f7abf17ad2ea4f21956&a_m=&a_a=click&a_s=&a_p=%2Fsection%2Feconomics&a_li=china-growth-slowdown-stimulus-by-yu-yongding-2019-11&a_pa=section-commentaries&a_ps=

Yuen Ang, Yuen 2019. Missing the Big Picture on Poverty Reduction. Project Syndicate, Nov 13, 2019. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-poverty-reductionreinforces-rct-doubts-by-yuen-yuen-ang-2019-11?a_la=english&a_d=5dcc165044cb701da8acb7f4&a_m=&a_a=click&a_s=&a_p=%2Farchive&a_li=china-poverty-reduction-reinforces-rct-doubts-by-yuen-yuen-ang-2019-11&a_pa=&a_ps=

Zhou, Cissy 2019. China could ‘smooth over’ census data to meet growth target, achieve goal of doubling size of economy by 2020, South China Morning Post, 13 Nov, 2019. https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3036745/china-could-smoothover-census-data-meet-growth-target

Downloads

Published

2020-03-08

How to Cite

Nikolić, G., & Malović, M. . (2020). POSSIBLE STRATEGIC RESPONSES OF THE WEST TO CHINA’S RISE IF ITS STRONG ECONOMIC GROWTH CONTINUES. KULTURA POLISA, 17(41), 471–491. Retrieved from https://kpolisa.com/index.php/kp/article/view/141

Issue

Section

Review Article

Categories

Metrics

Most read articles by the same author(s)

1 2 > >>