TURKEY AND EUROPEAN ELECTIONS

Abstract

Ankara has distanced itself from the EU’s democratic norms to such a degree that progress on Turkey’s EU accession bid is no longer realistic. The June 2018 EU Council conclusions stated clearly the concern in Europe over “the continuing and deeply worrying backsliding on the rule of law and on fundamental rights including the freedom of expression” and “the deterioration of the independence and functioning of the judiciary.” The accession process is neither alive nor formally dead, because it is up to Turkey to fulfill the conditions that the two sides have agreed are the basic requirements for accession.The EU’s view on the rule of law is unlikely to soften much afterthe local elections on March 31 were marked by deviations from democratic rule: the campaign was unfair and later on the AKP-MHP coalition did not admit defeat in Istanbul.The European Parliament approved a resolution on March 13 recommending “that the [European] Commission and the Council of the European Union, in accordance with the Negotiating Framework, formally suspend the accession negotiations with Turkey.”

If Turkey squarely refuses to improve its rule-of-law situationthis would be a major reason for EU political circles to prolong the standstill. Ankara’s artificial narrative to the effect that Turkey has fulfilled all the criteria for accession does not help politically. In addition, political trends in several EU countries are not favorable to Turkey, as the campaign for the May 2019 EuropeanParliament elections is illustrating.The evolution of the EU’s political landscape has resulted in greater Euroskeptic and Turcoskeptic forces, which does not bode well for a rapid improvement in the EU-Turkey relationship

In short, difficulties abound in the EU-Turkey relationship, and the possibility of a complete standstill in the EU-Turkey relationship should not be underestimated. In the coming months, domestic politics on both sides will probably not help much. Although some progress is apparent, as obvious remains the fact of many undersold Turkish issues, which makes her admittance into the European Union as still extremely uncertain.For the time being, Turkey will still be waiting at the gates of EU, cautious about the new Parliament and the President of the European Commission.