TRADE WAR OF THE US AGAINST CHINA: ECONOMIC OR GEOPOLITICAL CONFLICT?

Abstract

The trade war, whose main manifestation is the raising of US tariffs on Chinese imports, but the most important part of which is a partial blocking of exports of high-tech American high-tech products and technologies in China, is probably the last serious US strategic action.Eventual failure, or partial success, would mean that the technological catch-up of the world's two largest economies is inevitable, and that America's ability to dominantly shape the global order will be drastically narrowed, first of all in favour of China in the coming decades. As the Cold War was, in fact, a war with other means, a trade war could have the same consequences.

Thus, even if a comprehensive agreement is reached, the problems will continue, as the trade war is least about a trade. It is a manifestation of the escalation of strategic competition between the two powers. In the end, both countries are willing to sacrifice their mutual economic relations, because the risks posed by the opposing national interests (and ideologies) begin to outweigh the benefits of cooperation. Namely, there is growing consensus in the US that China is the most serious long-term security threat faced by the country, and trading with a geopolitical rival is a dangerous business.